Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin outlines 6 crypto trends shaping markets in 2026

São Paulo-based cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin (MB), one of Latin America's largest trading platforms, released a report outlining six major trends it expects to define the crypto market in 2026.

The report identifies a major expansion in stablecoins, tokenization, altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and AI-driven trading as key forces shaping the next phase of the industry.

Bitcoin to gold ratio changes

MB estimates that bitcoin BTC$90,888.89 could reach 14% of gold’s market capitalization by the end of 2026. That ratio is currently at 5.65%, meaning that, all else equal, the price of bitcoin would more than double.

The report cites bitcoin's growing role as a store of value, particularly in comparison to gold, which faces logistical challenges around transport and storage. The cryptocurrency’s adoption by institutional treasuries, which have accumulated more than 1.09 million bitcoin so far, also shows bitcoin is no longer a niche asset, the firm said.

Bitcoin’s digital, borderless, and self-custodied nature has allowed it to capture interest from investors looking for alternatives to traditional safe havens, the report adds.

The 14% figure, MB added, isn’t a guess but rather the result of a valuation methodology developed in partnership with researchers from the University of California (UCLA).

“In the "Bitcoin Valuation Framework," we use, among other methods, a Total Addressable Market (TAM) approach to estimate BTC's theoretical value,” the report reads. “Instead of forcing traditional cash flow models onto a monetary asset, we start with the global store-of-value market, use gold as the primary benchmark, and project what fraction of this market Bitcoin might capture under different adoption scenarios.”

That framework, the firm’s analysts wrote, takes them to their base scenario where bitcoin reaches 14% of gold’s market capitalization this year.

Stablecoins to grow to half a trillion

MB expects to see the stablecoin sector, already a core part of the crypto infrastructure, grow to reach a market capitalization of $500 billion in 2026. That, in part, will be over the growth of stablecoins that aren't tied to the U.S. dollar.

According to MB, stablecoins have evolved from trading tools into payment instruments across countries and sectors. “[Stablecoins] play an essential role as a source of liquidity for the sector, facilitating the rapid and secure movement of resources without exposure to the volatility of other digital assets,” the report adds.